Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 185.981415 227.508268 279.688464 351.469210 449.952820 5.839729e+02 7.869479e+02
2025-02-09 141.237660 189.355831 258.219485 368.806265 552.337961 8.673461e+02 1.511806e+03
2025-02-16 116.107557 165.416925 242.554963 381.223707 648.564764 1.209920e+03 2.760516e+03
2025-02-23 99.284443 147.959908 229.420573 389.595697 740.111232 1.626478e+03 4.994139e+03
2025-03-02 84.867177 130.571872 210.873971 379.721389 787.937876 1.996723e+03 8.272840e+03
2025-03-09 74.028956 116.868997 195.197873 369.472001 829.369323 2.409107e+03 1.393260e+04
2025-03-16 65.044130 104.765640 179.707920 354.220630 849.709505 2.791825e+03 2.294943e+04
2025-03-23 62.577576 103.961927 185.966476 391.423176 1050.940830 4.337995e+03 8.233870e+04
2025-03-30 57.819339 98.023225 180.322500 397.072570 1156.632056 5.728981e+03 2.840807e+05
2025-04-06 54.573541 94.508187 179.125330 414.395839 1324.919961 8.254776e+03 3.373144e+06
2025-04-13 50.180576 88.074995 170.153994 406.560109 1384.894897 1.023821e+04 5.367159e+08
2025-04-20 49.106550 88.287203 176.596331 448.109061 1727.166508 1.860064e+04 NaN
2025-04-27 47.471499 87.268170 180.374586 485.262479 2125.098921 3.644175e+04 NaN
2025-05-04 45.552423 85.378301 181.665224 515.482919 2554.152419 7.623878e+04 NaN
2025-05-11 43.395335 82.654037 180.221984 535.479249 2969.872087 1.681108e+05 NaN
2025-05-18 41.219835 79.601120 177.290887 548.742635 3381.145301 4.181379e+05 NaN
2025-05-25 38.400376 74.717782 168.375397 533.220556 3493.031210 7.762766e+05 NaN
2025-06-01 35.865952 70.253634 159.974716 517.163407 3585.081172 1.571958e+06 NaN
2025-06-08 33.381245 65.671205 150.562952 493.395380 3553.195086 2.758970e+06 NaN
2025-06-15 33.212186 66.664179 157.786827 551.641242 4808.540507 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 31.840210 64.538982 155.177778 560.564680 5416.271935 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 30.951133 63.530663 155.900640 588.053382 6558.154050 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 29.351244 60.557670 149.860778 575.596196 6835.058336 NaN NaN